REMEMBER, this is only for Wii U releases, not DS or 3DS releases
Also, I will not be covering Smash Bros.; it's going to be a while before it comes out
Mario
Analyzing the last releases for every possibly spin-off for a series is important. Going by this information, we can see that the Mario has a pretty full schedule for the rest of the year. Also keep in mind that Nintendo withheld Super Mario Galaxy 2 from fall 2009's release schedule because of New Super Mario Bros. Wii. While it's conceivable that a Mario game will be announced for Wii U at E3 2012, don't expect to hit this year.
Pokemon
While Pokemon may not have as many spin-offs as Mario, they seem to stay close to the main formula as possible. If there's any hope for a Pokemon game on Wii U's launch day, it lies in the Stadium department as it's been 5-6 years (depending on where you live) since its' last release. Getting 660+ Pokemon in HD might prove tough though, but keep in mind that's about 110 per year if they were efficient. I wouldn't count on it, though, as the last one was woefully unpopular sales wise.
The Legend of Zelda
There really isn't much milk to run dry from with the Zelda series, with only 1 spin-off to its' credit, the Zelda series is basically a series of games that are run on the same premise. Although there were only 2 retail releases for the series last year, there were a total of 6 releases if you include the downloadable remake of Four Swords Anniversary as well as the 3 Ambassador Zelda games. So one could say it was a long year for Zelda that most probably exhausted themselves of by the end. With that in mind, the only way there would be a Zelda game this year is if Retro was making one, but I find those odds to be less than 0% given Aunoma's stranglehold over the series.
Kirby
Kirby's had a lot of releases recently, 3 in the last 2 years in fact. There's a known eShop game that we've seen nothing of as well. Having a Kirby release at launch would make Iwata smile, but I doubt Kirby's up for the task given his slew of quick releases, especially since Kirby games tend to be announced and then don't come out for at least a few years, as has been the average trend.
Donkey Kong
Donkey Kong is a weird one, for sure. After a lot of off-shoots with controls including Barrels, he got a racing game and finally a great platformer by a development house known for reviving franchises. However, it sounds like that development house has moved onto something else, whatever it is, we don't know. It might not be true though, as it could just be Nintendo's way to trick us into thinking it's not coming. It's been a couple of years, and a Donkey Kong game could help push sales for Wii U early on as it's a proven franchise worldwide, as well as having the pedigree of Retro Studios behind it. We expect Retro's next game to be announced at E3 this year, whether or not its' Donkey Kong remains to be seen.
Metroid
There's a lot to say here, isn't there? Other M isn't liked for about any reason you can think of. It's been a very quiet couple of years from Nintendo about this franchise, giving the fans the impression they've seemingly dismissed it as a franchise. If a Metroid game is coming to Wii U, we don't know who'll make it or when it'll come out. Taking the "creator" off might be a good thing. Then again, it'd leave a lot of doubt of where the series could continue without an ending to the last story it gave, which is something fans want, at least they did for a while at least. A surprise Metroid game at launch might be a good move. It'd show Nintendo backing the franchise in a time of uncertainty while trying to regain its' audience's trust, just like its' trying to do with Wii U and the hardcore gamer. Metroid does sell worldwide, although Japan is seemingly not interested in quality gaming. However, given the last game's quality, with a possible changing of the guard, it's probably going to be a while before we see Metroid again.
Pikmin
We know a Pikmin game was in development for Wii, but got moved to Wii U. When is it coming? We don't know. Miyamoto said within the system's first 6 months, but he said the same thing about Super Mario Galaxy, which came out a year after Wii's launch instead. I'm not saying the same will happen here, but I don't think Pikmin is a system seller, especially not at a $300+ price point. The hardcore gamer would really demand something else as well, like a hardcore racing game or a platformer, the number of which Nintendo has is mind-boggling. So, while Pikmin has a good shot to be at Wii U's launch, it doesn't have a great shot at being able to carry the torch.
F-Zero
F-Zero had a rough patch at the end of its' last run. GX was great, but was also extremely difficult, even for masochists. While there is a definite demand for an F-Zero game out there right now, it's all up to who is making it, and not a matter of when. Why not when? Because Nintendo has a history of releasing racing games at their console launches. Wave Race 64, Wave Race Bl Storm and Excite Truck were the last 3 racing games Nintendo released on launch day for their consoles. To say a racing game will be at Wii U's launch is sort of a safe assumption. It just depends if it'll be Wave Race or F-Zero, but I think Nintendo will listen to the fans on this one and go with F-Zero.
Star Fox
Star Fox doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now. A $40 remake sold without much fanfare, especially when you can get it for $30 cheaper on your Wii not including system costs. Star Fox, at least the on-rails shooter portion of it, needs to get longer levels ala early Sonic 3D games or go the downloadable route to maintain relevance. The games that people want out of Star Fox just aren't worth full retail price anymore. 90 minutes of gameplay for $60 is highway robbery and people won't stand for it, even if there's multiple routes.
Animal Crossing
Wii U _____
Wario
Wario isn't that popular of a series. It's an off-shoot of Mario with a crude sense of humor. It's been 3 years since the last one and while it's a candidate for a Wii U launch game, it doesn't have the muscle to pull in system-selling numbers, at least by itself. If they were working on one but decided to port it over from Wii, it'd be easy if it was the same hand-drawn art style Shake It had. I give Wario a slim chance of making it for launch, but there's hope at least.
Kid Icarus
While Uprising was an outstanding title, don't expect to see Pit at Wii U's launch, especially with Sakurai working on 2 versions of Super Smash Bros.
So those are where Nintendo's big franchises stand right now. Based on time alone, I'd say the top candidates for a release in the system's launch window (3 months from release) are Donkey Kong, Wii U _____, Wario, F-Zero and Metroid. Keep in mind that this is only about established franchises and not potential new IP's or franchises with less than 2 entries in them. As of writing this, it includes Kid Icarus, but I think we all know there won't be another Kid Icarus game released this year. I'll try and add more to this list since Nintendo has a lot of franchises as well as keep you updated on it. Once E3 happens in June, we'll see if I'm good with my numbers or not.
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